Below is the latest (simple) using only Federal Reserve macroeconomic indices and commodity futures data. The general forecast trend is similar to February's forecast (see previous post below) though the overall S&P level is 10%-15% higher. After approaching 2300 in September, weakness is projected to emerge as we get closer to the election and should continue until the end of the year. The S&P 500 is projected to continue to increase due to monetary policy and favorable sentiment phenomena, despite global macro and political risks gaining momentum.
The major factors include (cross validation error is ~11%, with an R squared of 95%):
*Real M2 Money Supply (increasing, momentum slowing)
*M1 Money Supply - 15 month rate of change (slowly increasing though trajectory is uncertain)
*Manufacturing Employment (declining)
*Appreciation/Depreciation of Commercial Bank Debt Securities (still increasing)
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